I know you probably take Rachel Maddow with a pound of salt, but other than the leftist slant of the article, don't these numbers debunk the claim that the deficit is growing? Or are there certain distinctions or metrics that you think they're missing which negate their optimism?
A deficit shift the GOP may struggle to explain maddowblog.msnbc.com
For deficit hawks, all of the news is good news.
Me: It's interesting that you ask me these questions. You know my predilections. How do you know I won't just feed you a bunch of right wing talking points?
B.R.: I don't. I'm relying on your intelligence and integrity to tell me, in your opinion. which details are true signs of deficit reduction and which elements are leftist spin. If you simply said, "this is all BS, the deficit is going up", and nothing else, then I'd be a little let down. Other than that, I'm open to hearing whatever you have to say.
Me: I don't know who might be claiming what about the deficit, but for me the national debt is the relevant number. The deficit is the shortfall from year to year, and the debt is the accumulation of those deficits. The national debt has increased every year since 1957. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt.htm
Here's the national debt for that last dozen fiscal years.
4/30/2013 16,828,845,878,546.72 (1.31 trillion added to the debt, annualized)
09/30/2012 16,066,241,407,385.89 (1.27 trillion added)
09/30/2011 14,790,340,328,557.13 (1.23)
09/30/2010 13,561,623,030,891.79 (1.65)
09/30/2009 11,909,829,003,511.75 (1.89)
09/30/2008 10,024,724,896,912.49 (.798)
09/30/2007 9,007,653,372,262.48 (.501)
09/30/2006 8,506,973,899,215.23 (.574)
09/30/2005 7,932,709,661,723.50 (.553)
09/30/2004 7,379,052,696,330.32
09/30/2003 6,783,231,062,743.62
09/30/2002 6,228,235,965,597.16
09/30/2001 5,807,463,412,200.06
09/30/2000 5,674,178,209,886.86
It's going to be a long time before we get back to bush-era deficits, let alone start paying off the national debt.
B.R.: Alright, so we're agreed that the debt is increasing, and will continue to do so until there IS NO DEFICIT, but instead a surplus, in the annual budget. Don't you think it's at least encouraging, though, that the deficit is decreasing, and that we're getting closer to a surplus?
Me: Sorry, I accidently hit "enter" and was editing. As you can see by the 2013 deficit figures, at the end of Aapril we are on track for a 1.31 trillion deficit. I don't think Maddow's projects are accurate. I am not encouraged yet, until I see some longer term trends that show a commitment to fiscal restraint. Like I said, it will be a long time before we're actually paying off the debt.
B.R.: Ok...they got their numbers from the CBO - do you think the CBO isn't accurate? And while I would also like to see longer term trends, we are seeing "the fastest deficit reduction Americans have seen since World War II". It's okay if you're not encouraged (yet), but I assume we can agree this is the right direction in which to head.
Me: The CBO is a congressional organization. My figures are from the actual Treasury website.
I don't mean to contend with you, and I don't take your points lightly. The statement "the fastest deficit reduction Americans have seen since World War II" can't be demonstrated, because we don't know the criteria being judged. If you like, you can go to the link I provided and calculate the raw change, the percentage change, and the proportional change of the national debt from year to year for every year since WWII. It's more work than I want to do.
But even still, remember what we are dealing with here. The deficit exploded to incredible levels over the last 5 years. Any reduction in a huge number is going to be a huge raw number. But I don't think we can give props for them exploding the debt and then reducing it by a large number. All that means is we've been on a spending binge for the last few years, and if it's really being reeled in, it still leaves us with huge deficit and debt numbers.
B.R.: Awesome, those are like the exact thoughts I was hoping for. Now I have a balanced perspective on the unbalanced budget. Thanks Rich!
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